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	<title>BridgeGap Engineering Blog &#187; IEEE 2009 On-Going Updates</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/category/ieee2009updates/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com</link>
	<description>Cement Production &#38; Engineering Community Blog/Forum</description>
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		<title>OEM Clinker Cooler Roundtable Panel Discussion</title>
		<link>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/oem-clinker-cooler-roundtable-panel-discussion</link>
		<comments>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/oem-clinker-cooler-roundtable-panel-discussion#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Jun 2009 08:39:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[IEEE 2009 On-Going Updates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Claudius Peters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[clinker cooler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[coolers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IKN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[KHD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Polysius]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.bridgegapengineering.com/?p=54</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The build-up related to another “Cooler Wars” panel discussion for this week’s IEEE Conference Participants turned out to be very anticlimactic. Following the panel discussion, nearly all of the participants polled concluded that there is very little in the way of technology that currently differentiate the major OEMs (KHD, Polysius, FLSmidth, Claudius Peters) when it comes [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The build-up related to another “Cooler Wars” panel discussion for this week’s IEEE Conference Participants turned out to be <em>very anticlimactic</em>. Following the panel discussion, nearly all of the participants polled concluded that there is very little in the way of technology that currently differentiate the major OEMs (<a href="http://www.khdhumboldt.com/" target="_blank">KHD</a>, <a href="http://www.polysius.com/" target="_blank">Polysius</a>, FLSmidth, <a href="http://www.claudiuspeters.com/" target="_blank">Claudius Peters</a>) when it comes to clinker coolers:<br />
• All current OEM designs (except <a href="http://www.ikn.eu/cms/" target="_blank">IKN</a>) are offering a 3rd Generation Cooler based on FLSmidth’s revolutionary Cross-Bar Cooler which was developed more than 12 years ago (having separated the conveying function from the cooling function).<br />
• In the case of IKN, this seems more like a lack of commitment to new R&amp;D than any perceived advantages for a 2nd Generation cooler compared to the other OEM’s 3rd Generation designs.</p>
<p>For cement producers, they really can’t go wrong with any of the new 3rd Generation Coolers:<br />
• Cooler run-time has improved dramatically since the mid-1990s.<br />
• Heat recuperation has increased substantially.<br />
• Low maintenance costs are now verifiable.<br />
KHD and FLSmidth may hold a slight advantage because of their patented airflow control valves for each “grate plate” in the cooler.</p>
<p><em>Here’s our report of what each OEM had to say:</em></p>
<p>1. <strong>KHD Pyro Floor Cooler, presented by Thomas Binninger:<br />
</strong>a.  Only 10 coolers in operation.  Excellent presentation.    Nothing new except published process results which show air consumption as low as 1.6 Nm3/kg to achieve 70 C above ambient temperature clinker.</p>
<p><strong>2. Polysius Track Cooler, presented by Dr. Uwe Maas:<br />
</strong>a. About 65 coolers in operation.<br />
b. New static inlet section (zero step discharge) for improved cooling and maintenance.<br />
c. Verifiable low maintenance costs.<br />
d. Probably the most authentic of all speakers (keeping promises regarding wear life of components and working to make it even better):<br />
i. Informed the audience not to confuse expected wear results (anticipated) with guaranteed wear results (warranty).<br />
e. Unfortunately, Polysius again failed to present any verifiable cooling performance data (probably owing to zone aeration compared to airflow control valves).<br />
f. Static grate does not prevent snowman, but removal of snowman becomes easier due to the continuous incline without steps.<br />
g. 200 to 225 mm stroke length.<br />
<strong>3. FLSmidth Cross-Bar Cooler with ABC Inlet, presented by Steven Miller<br />
</strong>a. Nearly 200 coolers in operation.<br />
b. Snowman prevention systems with variable blast area, frequency, and intensity.<br />
c. FLS is willing to guarantee “no down-time” due to snowman formations.<br />
d. Most credible presentation based on 12+ years of experience and over 200 coolers sold. However, missed an opportunity to really drive this point home (e.g. imitation is the highest form of flattery).<br />
e. Case Study: Standard Cooler Loss decrease from 104 to 96 kcal/kg clinker.o<br />
f. Guarantee 2-3 years for wear components and 5 years for grate “plates”.<br />
g. 180 to 200 mm stroke length.<br />
<strong>4. CPAG Eta Cooler, presented by Andre Vos:<br />
</strong>a. 16 coolers in operation.<br />
b. Self-protected aeration lanes (93% of grate is protected).<br />
c. Unfortunately, the grate requires pre-charging with sieved gravel because clinker has been shown to breakdown in this cooler over time adding pressure drop across the grate.<br />
i. Reportedly, this was ‘discovered’ by Holcim.<br />
d. Zone aeration (like Polysius) which at least in theory is less effective than airflow valves (KHD and FLS).<br />
e. If a hydraulic cylinder fails, it is possible for the cooler to continue operating with “one lane down”.<br />
f. Run factor of up to 99.95% for cooler alone.<br />
g. Longest and variable stroke length to allow for increased retention time.<br />
h. 200 to 300 mm stroke length.<br />
<strong>5. IKN Cooler, presented by Christoph Lange:<br />
</strong>a. 96 coolers in operation.<br />
b. Lowest drive power (simple physics – no friction between ‘lanes’).<br />
c. 120 to 125 mm stroke length.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>IEEE Conference Environmental Workshop</title>
		<link>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/ieee-conference-environmental-workshop</link>
		<comments>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/ieee-conference-environmental-workshop#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Jun 2009 00:39:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>experts@bridgegap</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[IEEE 2009 On-Going Updates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[environmental]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EPA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HCl]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IEEE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Palm Springs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Palm Springs California]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PCA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[plant]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[plant production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SO2]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technical conference]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[THC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[THC Floor]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.bridgegapengineering.com/?p=38</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Here is a list of the speakers for the concurrent Environmental Workshop and our notes on what they had to say during their presentation and during the subsequent Q&#38;A Session for conference participants:</p>
<p>1.   AB -32: CO2 Climate Change and the Cement Industry by Michael Stevens of National Cement:
• All 6 cement companies and 11 cement plants [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Here is a list of the speakers for the concurrent Environmental Workshop and our notes on what they had to say during their presentation and during the subsequent Q&amp;A Session for conference participants:</em></p>
<p><strong>1.</strong>   <strong>AB -32: CO2 Climate Change and the Cement Industry</strong> <strong>by Michael Stevens of National Cement:<br />
</strong>• All 6 cement companies and 11 cement plants in California are working together to (1) establish a GHG Emissions Cap for 2020 and to (2) establish mandatory reporting rules.<br />
• California’s intent is to be pre-emptive and thereby autonomous.<br />
• Their concerns: (1) the relatively few low-cost abatement technologies that are available and (2) the severe risk of “Emissions Leakage”.<br />
i. “Leakage” means cement imports from other states or parts of the globe who have higher GHG footprints than California able to import cement into California.<br />
ii. It is not protectionism! The Environment is a Global Issue!<br />
iii. The intent is to avoid another OPEC (Oil Producing Export Countries) Effect where a US-based industry moves overseas.<br />
iv. California desires WTO compliance.<br />
v. California would like to establish “sister plants” in provinces in China.<br />
• Their proposal: A Hybrid concept which combines cap-and-trade with performance standards (credits)<br />
i. Where the PCA decides what the “performance standards” are, such as:<br />
1. The use of SCM’s (Supplementary Cementitious Materials).<br />
2. The “re-carbonization” effect of concrete.<br />
ii. Proposed baseline: 1995.<br />
• Cement industry represents 2% of California’s total CO2 emissions.<br />
<strong>2.  NESHAP Update by Keith Barnett of the EPA (Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards):<br />
</strong>• NESHAP: National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants<br />
• The initial standards were written in 1999 (Reconsideration versus Remanded)<br />
• MACT Standards, by law, may be no less stringent than the average emissions from the “best 12 percent” or ‘cleanest’ plants already in operation where data is available.<br />
• In the 2007 Brick Decision, the court found &#8220;fundamental failure&#8221; by the EPA to set floors (or minimum stringency requirements) at the emission levels actually achieved by the best-performing sources. As a result, the EPA cannot ignore non-technology factors that set HAP limits.<br />
• The March 2007 D.C. Circuit also rejected the EPA&#8217;s attempt to ensure that the Brick MACT provided enough leeway to accommodate the operational variability among similar sources (EPA must estimate variability, e.g. wet kilns versus dry kilns).<br />
• Higher emitters are at risk to closure.<br />
• During the establishment of THC Floors by the EPA, only 14 kilns had CEM’s that measure THC so the top 12 percent is only 2 kilns! Based on the fact that THC is so variable based on raw materials found locally, it is easily concluded that there is insufficient data available to set emissions standards.<br />
• Establishment of PM Floors and HCl Floors &#8211; Method 321 and Method 5, respectively.<br />
• The proposed rules consider the following pollutants:<br />
i. PM<br />
ii. HCl<br />
iii. THC<br />
iv. Hg<br />
v. HCl<br />
vi. SO2<br />
• Some of the emission-reduction equipment being evaluated includes:<br />
i. broken bag detectors<br />
ii. wet scrubbers<br />
iii. activated carbon injection systems<br />
iv. regenerative thermal oxidizers.<br />
• By 2013, the proposed equipment additions are projected to reduce mercury emissions by 81%-93%, THC emissions by 75%, and Particulate emissions by 90 to 96%.<br />
• The mercury ruling, alone, will affect 93 cement plants and 163 cement kilns in the U.S. The EPA estimates that the capital cost of the program will be about $1.14 billion. However, this is based on 2005 numbers. Today, there are 112 cement manufacturing plants in the U.S. as several new plants have come online in the last four years. The estimated emission control cost for a new 1.2 million-ton-per-year cement line is $17.6 million.<br />
• RTO’s have negative impacts such as increasing CO2 emissions.<br />
• During the Q&amp;A Session, Mr. Barnett seemed to ‘flip-flop’ during the following exchange:<br />
i. In response to concerns about certain plants being unable to survive, Mr. Barnett said, “using the available control technologies, it is possible to meet the limits”.<br />
ii. In response to the EPA’s identification of RTO’s as an “Available Control Technology” when there are only 2 such installations in the US, Mr. Barnett said, “we don’t mandate the use of certain technologies (RTO’s), we only mandate what the emissions limit is”.<br />
• Wet scrubber waste can be used as “gypsum” in the finish mill.<br />
• Activated carbon waste can be recycle and “reactivated”.</p>
<p><strong></strong></p>
<p><strong>3. Mercury Speciation, Evolution and Ultimate Fate in Cement Manufacturing by Connie Senior:<br />
</strong>• Mercury emissions can range from less than 1 to more than 1000 micrograms per cubic meter. These are enormous swings! Mercury is difficult to measure in a cement kiln. Stack emissions are 5 to 20 times lower when raw mill is on line.<br />
• There are various measurement methods depending upon the need to distinguish between Hg0, Hg1, Hg2. Distinction between Hg types is important only if you are installing a scrubber because the scrubbers are effective for reducing Oxygenated Hg.<br />
• All measuring methods in flue gas are extractive therefore difficult (for example, the environment is dusty and sampling HgCl2 is very sticky):<br />
i. Impinger methods<br />
ii. Sorbent traps<br />
iii. CEM’s (sampling challenges – variation is great so probably need CEM’s).<br />
• Process affecting Hg in a Cement Kiln:<br />
i. Hg condenses on dust in the FF and onto the feed to a mill.<br />
ii. Typically, 80% can be “scrubbed” by a vertical raw mill.<br />
iii. 50 to 90% can be “scrubbed” across a FF.<br />
iv. If recycling dust, there is no collection. Spikes will occur when CKD is recycled.<br />
• Hg behavior is very complex.<br />
• Temperature control: lowering the temperature of exhaust gas will capture mercury.<br />
• Halogen content can drive change from elemental to oxidized (HgCl2).<br />
• Slip stream dust removal during raw mill running is not an effective control strategy.<br />
• Slip stream to finish mill will reduce Hg emissions during the raw mill down condition, but system removal efficiencies are low so this method may not be effective if significant levels of mercury need to be removed. You need to undertake a complete mass balance of Hg in your system.<br />
• Traditional Mercury Controls:<br />
i. Waste main filter dust (low removal rates)<br />
ii. Wet scrubber (low removal rates and expensive to install &amp; operate)<br />
iii. Activated Carbon Injection<br />
• New Methods for Mercury Controls:<br />
i. Roaster (higher removal rates at lower operating costs due to small system at high concentration rates).<br />
1. Requires heat source (bypass gas, cooler vent, or HGG) to boiling point.<br />
2. Hot EP dust to blending silo.<br />
3. Gas phase Hg then cooled and condenses on Remaining dust. An adsorbent (sorbent) is optional. This Hg-rich dust is then added to finish cement.<br />
<strong></strong></p>
<p><strong>4. SNCR &amp; SCR: Their Implication for NOx Reduction in the Cement Industry by Bob Schreiber:<br />
</strong>• NOx is 90% NO, 10% NO2.<br />
• SNCR is proven technology:<br />
i. 40% reduction = 400 tons out of 1000 tpy.<br />
ii. Ammonia used as reagent for SNCR.<br />
iii. NSR – normalized stoichiomentric ratio = 1.0 which means assume that it all mixes (no slip).<br />
iv. Reagent cost $669,000 per year.<br />
v. Cost effectiveness in 2008 is about $1,400/ton.<br />
vi. Typically SNCR Systems are able to reduce 30-60% NOx depending upon temperature and turbulence.<br />
vii. Recently being tried in long kilns where the desired temperature range (1850 F) is about 1/3 the way down the kiln.<br />
• There are no successful applications of SCR for NOx reduction in the cement industry:<br />
i. Need to keep the catalyst clean (cleaning system required).<br />
ii. Any amount of SO3 will generate salts which will plug the catalyst.<br />
iii. There is also pressure drop across the catalyst.<br />
iv. SCR requires less reagent than SNCR. However, you need to regenerate the catalyst every 3 years (significant cost).<br />
v. Cannot apply SCR to long wet or long dry because can’t get it at the temperature required … requires gas re-heat on the clean side.<br />
vi. SCR catalyst is poisoned by SO2 (due to higher SO2 to SO3 conversion).<br />
vii. Because of the expense of the catalyst, pilot testing must be performed 18 months in advance.<br />
<strong></strong></p>
<p><strong>5. Toxicology of Hexavalent Chromium and Mercury by Rick Pleus:<br />
</strong>• Fugitive emissions may be contributing to Hexavalent chrome because heating causes the conversion from Chrome 3 to Chrome 6.<br />
• Trivalent Chromium is needed by the human body.<br />
• Heavalent Chromium (unlike Mercury) is a carcinogen.<br />
• Sources of Mercury:<br />
i. Organic mercury compounds – e.g. fungicides in fish in the form of methyl-mercury.<br />
ii. Inorganic mercury (mercuric) compounds – e.g. medicines and colored paints<br />
iii. Elemental (metallic) mercury – found in thermometers.<br />
• Is the problem global or local? Should there be fish advisories?<br />
i. First, you need to determine the most sensitive endpoints (e.g. babies, elderly, pregnant, and children).<br />
ii. The largest fish have the highest concentration of mercury because Methyl Mercury goes through the food chain.<br />
iii. There are typically higher concentrations of Hg inside the household compared to outside ambient air.<br />
iv. Pregnant women should have fish advisory.<br />
v. Mercury does leave the human body over time.<br />
• Everything is toxic … it all just depends upon the dose!<br />
• The media is often doing a dis-service.<br />
• One nanogram of Cr6 = 1 part per trillion. To put this into perspective, one part per billion is equivalent to just 1 second in 32 years so 1 part per trillion is equivalent to 1/10th of a second in 32 years.<br />
• Don’t pull the fire alarm if there’s no alarm!<br />
• Risk = Outrage + Hazard by Peter Sandman, 2007. Therefore focus on the hazard – not on the outrage!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Welcome Address by Conference Chair Phil Gaynor:</title>
		<link>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/welcome-address-by-conference-chair-phil-gaynor</link>
		<comments>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/welcome-address-by-conference-chair-phil-gaynor#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Jun 2009 11:38:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>experts@bridgegap</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[IEEE 2009 On-Going Updates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BridgeGap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement engineering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cement Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cement Industry Committee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CIC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[environmental]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[environmental workshop]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IEEE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[leading techncial conference]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[leading technical]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.bridgegapengineering.com/?p=32</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Phil Gaynor shared his thoughts on the purpose of this conference:</p>
<p> Knowledge Transfer</p>
<p>This conference is widely acknowledged to be the world’s leading technical conference for the cement industry and the Cement Industry Committee (CIC) has done some neat things, like the concurrent Environmental Workshop, to make this conference [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Phil Gaynor shared his thoughts on the purpose of this conference:</p>
<p> Knowledge Transfer</p>
<p>This conference is widely acknowledged to be the world’s leading technical conference for the cement industry and the Cement Industry Committee (CIC) has done some neat things, like the concurrent Environmental Workshop, to make this conference even better.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Keynote Address by Mel Brekhus, President of Texas Industries (TXI)</title>
		<link>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/keynote-address-by-mel-brekhus-president-of-texas-industries-txi</link>
		<comments>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/keynote-address-by-mel-brekhus-president-of-texas-industries-txi#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Jun 2009 11:23:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>experts@bridgegap</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[IEEE 2009 On-Going Updates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BridgeGap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[I.M.A.G.I.N.E]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IEEE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IEEE reporting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inertia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[knowledge-economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mel Brekhus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nimble business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Industries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TXI]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.bridgegapengineering.com/?p=23</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Mel Brekhus shared his thoughts on what we, as leaders in the cement industry, need to do in order to thrive in these turbulent and tumultuous times in the cement industry:</p>
<p>I &#8211; Integrity (relationships you can trust)
M – Mentoring (because in a knowledge-economy, success is determined by the rate you learn)
A &#8211; Action (communicate common goals and empower [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mel Brekhus shared his thoughts on what we, as leaders in the cement industry, need to do in order to thrive in these turbulent and tumultuous times in the cement industry:</p>
<p><strong>I</strong> &#8211; Integrity (relationships you can trust)<br />
<strong>M</strong> – Mentoring (because in a knowledge-economy, success is determined by the rate you learn)<br />
<strong>A</strong> &#8211; Action (communicate common goals and empower the community)<br />
<strong>G</strong> &#8211; Grow (because the world is getting smaller, information is getting bigger, so life comes at you faster)<br />
<strong>I</strong> &#8211; Inertia (embrace change – even if it is uncomfortable)<br />
<strong>N</strong> – Nimble (the most agile survive)<br />
<strong>E</strong> &#8211; Enjoy (have fun doing all of the above)</p>
<p><strong>It&#8217;s not so hard to</strong> <strong>IMAGINE<em> A WORLD IN WHICH CEMENT IS THE FUTURE OF BUILDING PRODUCTS</em></strong></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>State of the US Cement Industry Address by Ed Sullivan</title>
		<link>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/state-of-the-us-cement-industry-address-by-ed-sullivan</link>
		<comments>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/state-of-the-us-cement-industry-address-by-ed-sullivan#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2009 17:09:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>experts@bridgegap</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[IEEE 2009 On-Going Updates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2009 IEEE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BridgeGap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement demographics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement margins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demographics demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Great recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Green cement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IEEE Conference]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PCA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[plant closures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[plant utilization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[robust recovery]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.bridgegapengineering.com/?p=11</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The 2009 Conference Program opened with a powerful speech made by Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist for the Portland Cement Association.</p>
<p> (Sullivan, by the way, recently testified to Congress on the stimulus package and has received high praise for the accuracy of his predictions).</p>
<p>1.   Short Term Forecast:   The Bad News:  &#8216;Green shoots&#8217; of recovery? &#8230; What green shoots?</p>

We have not [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2009 Conference Program opened with a powerful speech made by Ed Sullivan, Chief Economist for the Portland Cement Association.</p>
<p> (Sullivan, by the way, recently testified to Congress on the stimulus package and has received high praise for the accuracy of his predictions).</p>
<p>1.   <strong>Short Term Forecast:   The Bad News:  &#8216;Green shoots&#8217; of recovery? &#8230; What green shoots?</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>We have not bottomed out and we will remain dramatically depressed because an economy cannot truly recover until people are employed:  The number of job losses from Novemember 2008 through April 2009 are staggering (550,000 to 700,000 per month) and just because the job losses have slowed does not mean that we are recovering.  Since 2007, there have been 2.7 million job losses. </li>
<li>The impacts of the housing crisis will continue to be felt for many months and the private sector for construction will not recover before end of 2010. </li>
<li>There is no near-term relief until people start to go back to work and, once this happens, the point of &#8220;full recovery&#8221; is 2 years off .</li>
<li>The recovery will be based on US Economic Policy. </li>
<li>Historically, this will be known as THE GREAT RECESSION.</li>
<li>Considering imports and plant closures, the decline is 45 million metric tons of cement in 2010.</li>
<li>This is due to MARKET IMBALANCES.  The US Cement Industry has embarked on its most aggressive period of expansion in history (25 million tons of new capacity).  The recession began in 2007 and the US Cement Industry did not feel it because import reductions absorbed the imbalances.  At the same time, changes in regulations for Supplementary Cementitious  Materials added another 2 million tons of &#8220;new capacity&#8221;.</li>
<li>Plant closures (16).</li>
<li>Plant utiliztion rates will decline: 80% projected.</li>
<li>Stimulus Package will provide some relief, but hardship facing the industry will not be avoided.</li>
<li>Further plant closures may materialize.</li>
</ul>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>2.  Medium Term Forecast:   The Good News:  &#8216;ROBUST RECOVERY&#8217;</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>In 2011 and 2012, 3 million new jobs will be added! </li>
<li>Cycles are temporary. Recssions are caused by market imbalances!</li>
<li>The economy will come back and it is going to come back with a flury!</li>
<li>You can expect to pay higher taxes because the government is funding the recovery with debt.</li>
<li>There will be higher interest rates, higher taxes, and potentially higher inflation.</li>
<li>The American consumer may show significantly different spending patterns (e.g. savings versus debt) which adds the potential of slower longer term economic growth.</li>
<li>Moreover, the past cyclical peaks will not &#8220;fully recover&#8221; until 2015.</li>
<li>We will be rewarded for our short-term pain:  The Highway Bill will be HUGE and it will be designed for the long-term (using concrete) rather than the short-term (tar &amp; chip)! </li>
<li>Pent-up demand will be released.  </li>
<li>There will be sustained double digit gains in 2011 and 2012, but we don’t reach the past cyclincal peak until 2015.</li>
</ul>
<p> </p>
<p><strong>3.  Long Term Forecast:   The Great News:  Demographics will &#8216;Drive&#8217; the Demand for Cement</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>65 million new people will &#8220;drive&#8221; the US economy from 2007 to 2030.</li>
<li>You can take US Cencus Projections to the bank:  There will be 50 million additional licensed drivers in the US .</li>
<li>Just to maintain the roads, there has to be a 25% increase in spending on roads.</li>
<li>For &#8220;Green&#8221; reasons, the Government will enact measures to avoid highway congestion and fuel loss.</li>
<li>Highways  Systems will be expanded.  The Obama Administration recognizes this as a problem.</li>
<li>At the same time, we will have SYCHRONIZED WORLD GROWTH:   characterized by emerging middle class in developing economies.</li>
<li>Oil Prices will increase again.</li>
<li>New Cocker Installations: liquid asphalt: margins grow.  Concrete has a big advantage:   There will be 5.5. million tons of additional demand per year just based on increase market share for concrete over asphalt.</li>
<li>Add the impact of ICF Home Construction (resulting from Lifetime CO2 savings by using concrete instead of wood).</li>
<li>Non-residential construction will increase:<br />
i. Clean energy = hydro, wind, nuclear … lots of cement!!!<br />
ii. Successful clean energy … 28 licenses submitted for new nuclear power:  the demand for cement will be greater than anyone realizes.<br />
iii. Climate change are not in anyone&#8217;s estimates (based only on economics and demographics).<br />
iv. Outlooks is extremely bullish for cement even when the increased use of Supplemental Cementitious Materials are factored in.<br />
v. Cement production, if not increased, will create a 67 MTPA SUPPLY GAP.<br />
vi. ECONOMICALLY, POLITICALLY DEMOGRAPHICALLY, OUR COUNTRY IS GOING TO GROW.</li>
<li>The LONG TERM 67 MTPA SHORTAGE cannot be bridged by new imports because:<br />
1. Port congestion will become a huge issue.<br />
2. The issue will be freight rates which run parallel to oil prices.</li>
<li>Mercury emissions may cause 14 plants to be shut down (-20 MTPA).</li>
<li>THE SUPPLY GAP WILL WIDEN:  67 MTPA becomes 87 MTPA</li>
<li>Climate change initiatives will force the closure of any remaining wet kilns further growing the gap!!</li>
<li>Domestically, it is projected that 40 new cement plants will need to be constructed given the supply gap, the high oil prices, and the changes in construction practices driven by climate change.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Conference Attendance</title>
		<link>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/conference-attendance</link>
		<comments>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/conference-attendance#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 May 2009 16:45:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>experts@bridgegap</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[IEEE 2009 On-Going Updates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2009 IEEE attendance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2009 IEEE Conference]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2009 Palm Springs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BridgeGap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BridgeGap Engineering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IEEE Palm Springs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IEEE/PCA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PCA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portland Cement Association]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.bridgegapengineering.com/?p=8</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Conference Organizers are pretty satisfied with the level of attendance (600 people are reportedly registered) in consideration of the weakened economy.   Even more satisfying is that 80 of the 600 are cement producers.  California Portland and TXI are key contributors to attendance.   Ash Grove has only one registrant, but reportedly will be back in 2010 to support [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Conference Organizers are pretty satisfied with the level of attendance (600 people are reportedly registered) in consideration of the weakened economy.   Even more satisfying is that 80 of the 600 are cement producers.  California Portland and TXI are key contributors to attendance.   Ash Grove has only one registrant, but reportedly will be back in 2010 to support the conference in a big way as long as economic conditions do not worsen.  Lehigh-Hanson has one registrant.  Titan America has one registrant.  Holcim has zero registrants.  Holcim is currently in &#8220;start-up&#8221; mode for the world&#8217;s largest cement plant (12,000 tpd) which is the 2011host plant.  The sites for future year&#8217;s are as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>2010 &#8211; Colorado Springs &#8211; GCC &#8211; Pueblo &#8211; March 27-31, 2010</li>
<li>2011 &#8211; St. Louis &#8211; Holcim &#8211; Ste. Genevieve &#8211; May 22-26, 2011</li>
<li>2012 &#8211; San Antonio &#8211; Cemex &#8211; Balcones &#8211; May 13-17, 2012</li>
<li>2013 &#8211; Orlando &#8211; American Cement</li>
<li>2014 &#8211; Calgary/Banff &#8211; Lafarge &#8211; Exshaw</li>
</ul>
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		<title>UPDATE: Get &#8216;play-by-play&#8217; of the 2009 IEEE/PCA Conference in Palm Springs California</title>
		<link>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/2009-ieeepca-conference</link>
		<comments>http://blogbridgega.tempwebpage.com/2009-ieeepca-conference#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 May 2009 13:00:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>experts@bridgegap</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[IEEE 2009 On-Going Updates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BridgeGap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement engineering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cement Industry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cement production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IEEE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IEEE play-by-play]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Palm Springs California]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PCA 2009 IEEE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PCA Technical Conference]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PCAIEEE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[play-by-play]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.bridgegapengineering.com/?p=6</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Update : This site and blog are going &#8216;live&#8217; on Sunday May 31st, from the 2009 IEEE/PCA Cement Industry Technical Conference in Palm Springs, California USA. As a courtesy to our customers, we will be posting live updates during the conference to give you a &#8220;play-by-play&#8221; feel to those of you who could not be in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="Verdana;"><span style="#ff0000;"><strong>Update</strong> : This site and blog are going &#8216;live&#8217; on Sunday May 31st, from the <a class="alignleft" href="http://www.ieeepcaconference.org/palmsprings09.asp" target="_blank">2009 IEEE/PCA Cement Industry Technical Conference</a> in Palm Springs, California USA. As a courtesy to our customers, we will be posting live updates during the conference to give you a &#8220;play-by-play&#8221; feel to those of you who could not be in attendance this year due to the weakened economy. So, check this blog early and often!</span> </span></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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